India does not have a sugar shortage, industry body ISMA said on Monday, soothing concerns over the sweetner’s supplies amid a recent rise in retail prices. The industry body also expects sugar prices to come down in the comingIndian Sugar Mills Association president Niraj Shirgaokar said that the recent price rise was mainly due to speculative stocking and lower production caused by weather-related issues. “India does not have a sugar shortage and the supply situation is fundamentally strong,” Shirgaokar said, adding that the country has sufficient stocks and supplies to meet festival demand.The assessment comes after sugar prices rose 24% in a month to Rs 56-60 per kg in both retail and wholesale markets, prompting the Centre on August 20 to allow duty-free imports of up to 1 million tonnes of raw sugar.
‘No panic situation’
The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) has also maintained that domestic supplies remain adequate. Its net sugar production estimate for the 2025-26 season stands at 279 lakh tonnes, excluding an estimated 24 lakh tonnes diverted for ethanol production.NFCSF President Prakash Naiknavare said the federation had retained its production estimate despite other industry groups revising their projections.For the 2026-27 season beginning October 1, the federation has estimated opening stocks at 35 lakh tonnes. With monthly domestic demand at around 22 lakh tonnes, it expects 15-20 lakh tonnes to be carried into November, when early crushing is expected to add fresh supplies.“I don’t think there is going to be any panic situation,” Naiknavare said.
Some imports may arrive before October 15
Some sugar consignments could reach Indian shores before October 15, although it remains difficult to determine how much will arrive by then.Brazil is currently the only realistic source of imports, as Thailand is facing a sugar shortfall of its own, Naiknavare said. Shipments from Brazil generally take 40-45 days to reach Indian ports and require additional time to move from ports to mills.“So, it is difficult to put a number on how much can arrive before October 15th, but the possibility of some shipments arriving by then is good,” Naiknavare said.He said the timeline would depend on several steps, including DGFT approvals and allocation, issuance of letters of credit and shipment scheduling. Congestion at Brazilian ports could also affect arrivals.
October 31 deadline may not be strict
The government is also unlikely to treat the October 31 arrival deadline as an absolute cut-off, Naiknavare said, indicating that shipments already in transit could be considered even if they arrive later.“I believe they would be willing to consider shipments arriving after that date too. I don’t think it will be treated as a hard and fast rule.”Port-based states, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, are likely to receive imported raw sugar sooner.Landlocked northern states have also historically received such shipments through these ports, with the sugar then transported by road or rail.India exported only 8 lakh tonnes of sugar against the permitted quota of 20 lakh tonnes, as unfavourable international price parity affected shipments, Naiknavare said. Even without restrictions, exports were unlikely to have crossed 10 lakh tonnes, he added.The government had banned sugar exports from May 13 until September 30 to boost domestic availability and contain the rise in prices.