A new study by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force has warned Chinese cities to prepare for potential nuclear attacks, singling out Japan as a “major danger signal” to the world.According to the report, the likelihood of a large-scale global nuclear war was “relatively low,” South China Morning Post reported.“However, the possibility cannot be ruled out that small or medium-sized nuclear-armed or potentially nuclear-armed states, driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts, could carry out a single nuclear-weapon terrorist attack on neighbouring countries or on key cities of major powers,” it said.
Why report singled out Japan
The study noted that Tokyo had yet to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the first legally binding international agreement banning nuclear arms, adopted in 2017. It also claimed Japan was considering changes to its long-standing “three non-nuclear principles” of not possessing, producing or permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons.“Japan has still not acceded to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and the current Japanese government is even openly considering revising the principle of ‘non-introduction of nuclear weapons’ within its ‘three non-nuclear principles’, sending a major danger signal to the international community,” the report stated.In January 2022, the United Nations P5 — China, the United States, Russia, Britain, and France — the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — issued a joint statement affirming that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.But the PLA study warned: “Once certain countries or terrorist groups take such a risk, the possibility that Chinese cities could suffer a nuclear terrorist attack cannot be ruled out.”An official Chinese report released in January alleged that Tokyo “may already have produced weapons-grade plutonium in secret” and possessed “the technological and economic capabilities to achieve nuclear armament in a short period of time.”The January report also claimed Japan had “established a comprehensive nuclear fuel cycle system and possesses robust nuclear industrial capabilities”.
What a potential nuclear attack on a Chinese city look like
The PLA Rocket Force study also modelled a scenario in which a major Chinese city was hit by a single, low-yield nuclear terrorist attack involving a tactical weapon.Drawing on historical data from the 1945 Hiroshima bombing in Japan, along with simulations conducted worldwide, the researchers identified a range of challenges for medical teams, including hazardous conditions, widespread social disorder and complex patterns of injuries.Beijing has already established an emergency rescue network with more than 30 bases to treat casualties from a nuclear attack. The researchers called for further expansion of treatment capacity, additional resources and specialised training.They also recommended that local authorities stockpile emergency supplies, including antibiotics and radiation-protection equipment, and keep them in a state of “combat readiness”.Public education should also be strengthened on nuclear and radiation safety, rescue protocols and protective measures to minimise panic and irrational behaviour during an emergency.Compared with the medical response to an accident at a civilian nuclear facility, even a low-yield nuclear terrorist attack could result in heavy casualties and complex, multi-trauma injuries.Such an event would pose a “huge test” for the medical capacity of any city or country, the authors wrote, urging China to “prepare for a rainy day”.Beijing has repeatedly accused Tokyo of pursuing “remilitarisation” and has long voiced suspicions about its nuclear ambitions.